TL;DR
The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median expectations for inflation over the next year edged up to 3.1%, while longer-term expectations were unchanged. Respondents also lowered their economic growth outlook and expected a higher unemployment rate, alongside increased expectations for income, spending and home-price growth.
The European Central Bank reported on 23 October that consumers’ median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while expectations for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment increased. The monthly survey offers a snapshot of household views on prices, jobs, spending, housing and credit across the euro area, building on the July 2026 survey results.
Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead stayed at 2.9%, and expectations five years ahead remained at 2.5%. The ECB said uncertainty around near-term inflation expectations increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Consumers’ expected nominal income growth over the next year increased to 1.1% from 1.0%, while expected nominal spending growth rose to 3.7% from 3.6%. Perceived spending growth over the previous year also edged higher, reaching 5.3% from 5.2%.
The outlook for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in a year rose to 11.3% from 11.0%, against a perceived current rate of 10.6%. For housing, expected home-price growth increased to 3.5% from 3.4%, while expected mortgage rates in a year remained at 4.9%. The ECB also reported that net reports of tighter credit access, both over the past year and expected over the coming year, increased compared with August, echoing tighter credit standards in Germany.
Household Views Point to Uneven Pressures
The results show households facing a mixed outlook: near-term inflation expectations rose, but longer-term expectations did not change, while consumers became more pessimistic about growth and the labor market. Such views matter to policymakers because they help describe how households perceive economic conditions and may inform analysis of spending, prices and credit. The survey is one input into the ECB’s work, not a forecast or a statement of policy decisions.
The reported averages also conceal differences by income. Respondents in the bottom income quintile reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations on average than those in the top quintile. They also expected higher unemployment and mortgage rates, while anticipating faster home-price growth. These differences suggest that the economic outlook reported in the survey is not experienced uniformly across households.
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How the ECB Survey Was Conducted
The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro-area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026.
The ECB says the survey supports policy analysis and complements other data sources. Unless otherwise specified, figures in the release refer to a 2% winsorised mean. The bank also cautions that survey results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. Underlying microdata and country-level results are available through the ECB’s data resources.
„“The survey results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff.”“
— European Central Bank
Survey Limits and Open Questions
The survey records respondents’ perceptions and expectations; it does not establish what inflation, growth, unemployment or borrowing costs will actually be. The published results do not explain why individual expectations changed between August and September, and the figures alone cannot show whether households will alter their spending or borrowing as a result.
The ECB described near-term inflation uncertainty as slightly higher and still above its pre-conflict level, but the release did not quantify that uncertainty in the figures summarized here. It also reported tighter credit conditions on a net basis without giving a percentage in the release. The survey does not establish how long these shifts will last.
October Survey Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November. That release will provide the next monthly comparison for household expectations across prices, income, spending, jobs, housing and credit. Readers can also consult the ECB Data Portal for aggregate results by country and the euro area, alongside the microdata and methodological information.
Key Questions
What changed in the September 2026 survey?
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Growth expectations fell and expected unemployment rose, while expected income, spending and home-price growth increased.
Did long-term inflation expectations rise?
No. Median expectations stayed at 2.9% three years ahead and 2.5% five years ahead. The increase was in expectations for the next 12 months.
When was the survey carried out?
Fieldwork ran from 27 August to 28 September 2026. The ECB published the results on 23 October.
Do the results represent the ECB’s official forecast?
No. They report consumers’ survey responses. The ECB says the findings do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff, and uses the survey to complement other information for policy analysis.
When will the next results be released?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
