TL;DR
A Noahpinion essay argues that Donald Trump’s second presidency has failed in the court of public opinion, citing September 2026 polling on his approval and the cost of living. Those figures and the essay’s broader judgment are claims presented in the source, not a definitive measure of the presidency’s overall success; the midterm outcome remains unknown.
A Noahpinion essay argues that Donald Trump’s second presidency has already failed in public opinion, citing September 2026 surveys that put his approval at 37% in a Wall Street Journal poll and 32% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll. The piece, by Noah Smith, frames the figures as a warning for Republicans before the midterm elections, while its description of the presidency as a “world-historic failure” is the author’s assessment, not an independently established finding.
The Wall Street Journal figures reproduced in the essay show 37% approving and 61% disapproving of Trump’s performance in a survey conducted Sept. 16–21, 2026. The essay says that was the lowest approval rating for a president heading into midterms in WSJ polling dating to 1990. It also cites the poll’s finding that 60% said the economy was worse under Trump, compared with 25% who said it was better. These are results from that poll, not measures of every voter’s view.
The essay also cites a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted Sept. 17–20, which put Trump’s approval at 32%, with 66% disapproving. It reports that 17% approved of his handling of the cost of living in that survey. A separate Reuters/Ipsos result cited in the piece found that among Republicans, 51% disapproved of Trump’s handling of living costs and 44% approved. Differences in pollsters, questions and survey methods mean the numbers should be read as results from distinct surveys.
Smith connects the ratings to possible electoral consequences. He says Democrats have gained ground in public trust on issues including the economy and immigration, and that prediction markets have shifted toward a Democratic House win and given Democrats better-than-even odds of taking the Senate. Those are descriptions of polling and market expectations in the essay, not election results. The piece also notes that Democrats face their own political divisions, including disputes over Israel and Palestine and continued public skepticism of progressive positions.
Approval Ratings Put Republicans on Defense
The polling matters because it suggests that voter dissatisfaction is not confined to opposition to Trump’s personality or conduct. The figures cited by Smith point to cost of living and economic perceptions as particular vulnerabilities, including among Republicans. If those views persist through the midterms, they could affect congressional races and the party’s ability to defend its majorities.
That potential is not the same as a forecast. Polls capture opinions at a particular moment, and electoral outcomes depend on turnout, candidates, campaign conditions and local races. The essay itself acknowledges that Democrats have liabilities and that Senate contests may be difficult for them. Its central argument is that Trump has weakened his political standing despite those challenges facing the opposition.
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The Midterm Polling Behind the Argument
Smith’s essay compares Trump’s September 2026 standing with approval figures for presidents before earlier midterms, using a WSJ polling series that the article says goes back to 1990. In the table reproduced there, Trump’s 37% rating is below the figures shown for earlier presidents, including Trump at 44% in 2018 and Joe Biden at 43% in 2022. The comparison is limited to the particular polling series and dates presented in the essay.
The author also points to a change in the political environment: he says Republicans held an advantage over Democrats on some issues in 2025, but that the balance had shifted by the time of writing. His interpretation is that Trump’s problems have become more consequential because they are occurring while Democrats remain unpopular with parts of the electorate. The essay attributes the change to avoidable decisions and personnel choices, but those causal judgments are analysis rather than polling findings.
„There are a lot of things I got wrong… was crazier than I thought. It was more dangerous than I thought.“
— Peter Thiel, quoted in a social media post reproduced by the essay
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Polls Do Not Settle the Election
The polling cited is a snapshot from September 2026. The supplied material does not include full questionnaires, sampling details or margins of error for every survey, limiting how much can be independently assessed from the figures alone. It also does not establish whether the reported shifts will hold through election day.
Nor can polling establish that the presidency has failed overall. That phrase is Smith’s political judgment. The essay allows that future developments, including outcomes in artificial intelligence policy, could change how the term is assessed. The November election results, the precise effect of Trump’s standing on congressional races and whether voter concerns about prices will persist remain unresolved.
presidential approval rating chart
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Voters’ Verdict Comes in November
The immediate test is the 2026 midterm election, when voters will decide control of Congress. Campaigns, new polling and any changes in voters’ views of the economy may alter the picture described in the essay. The source material does not provide election results or a later polling update, so the projected congressional shifts remain uncertain.
After the election, the comparison between polling expectations and actual results will offer a clearer measure of whether Trump’s low approval translated into losses for Republicans. Until then, the essay’s conclusion should be understood as an argument about the political conditions reported in September, rather than a final verdict on the presidency.
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Key Questions
What is the news development?
A Noahpinion essay argues that Trump’s second term is in serious political trouble, citing low approval ratings and voter concerns about the cost of living ahead of the 2026 midterms.
What approval figures does the essay cite?
It cites a Wall Street Journal poll with Trump at 37% approval and 61% disapproval, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll with 32% approval and 66% disapproval. These figures come from separate September 2026 surveys.
Do the polls prove the presidency has failed?
No. The claim that the presidency is a “world-historic failure” is the author’s interpretation. Polls record opinion at specific times and do not settle an overall historical judgment.
What could the polling mean for the midterms?
It may signal electoral risk for Republicans, particularly around economic concerns. But the essay’s references to possible Democratic gains are expectations, not results; control of Congress will depend on the November vote.
Source: rss
